Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
17.49%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
17.97%
increased by 0.19%
1 Month
19.48%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2020 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0675 | 2.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.0895 | 4.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8833 | 38.80*** |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0675 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 4.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8833 | 38.80*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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