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V-Lab

Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.45%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

23.57%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

23.95%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6988
7.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0771
14.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9793
284.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.9943
2.43**

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days