Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
24.15%
increased by 3.67%
1 Week
24.22%
increased by 3.74%
1 Month
24.45%
increased by 3.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 9.19 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6170 | 1.92* |
| αscore | 0.0771 | 3.66*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9783 | 71.51*** |
| νDF | 9.1909 | 0.59 |
0.978
Persistence32d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6170 | 1.92* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0771 | 3.66*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9783 | 71.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1909 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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