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V-Lab

Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

24.15%

increased by 3.67%

1 Week

24.22%

increased by 3.74%

1 Month

24.45%

increased by 3.97%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2020 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 9.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.6170
1.92*
αscore0.0771
3.66***
βpersistence0.9783
71.51***
νDF9.1909
0.59

0.978

Persistence

32d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.6170
1.92*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0771
3.66***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9783
71.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1909
0.59

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days