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V-Lab
V-Lab

Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

17.83%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

18.23%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

19.56%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 4, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 32 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 32 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 32-day half-lifev = 9.14 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6335
1.88*
αARCH0.0778
3.68***
βGARCH0.9787
70.82***
νDF9.1422
0.60

0.979

Persistence

32d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6335
1.88*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0778
3.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9787
70.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1422
0.60

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days