V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.20%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
2.25%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.41%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0354 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1048 | 11.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 175.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4161 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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