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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2.04%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

2.10%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

2.28%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0365
4.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1037
12.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9754
190.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5409
2.65***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days