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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.20%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

2.25%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

2.41%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0354
4.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1048
11.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9722
175.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4161
2.51**

Persistence:

0.972

Half-life:

25 days