V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.14%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
2.20%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.38%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:46 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0345 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.1114 | 2.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9684 | 40.54*** |
| νDF | 6.6284 | 0.61 |
0.968
Persistence22d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0345 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1114 | 2.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9684 | 40.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6284 | 0.61 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
22 days
Other Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs