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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

1.71%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

1.80%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

2.08%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 6.54 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0315
1.35
αARCH0.1138
2.81***
βGARCH0.9655
37.94***
νDF6.5434
0.63

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0315
1.35
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1138
2.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9655
37.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5434
0.63

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days