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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

2.15%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

2.21%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

2.37%

increased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 6.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0325
1.34
αARCH0.1095
2.70***
βGARCH0.9650
38.05***
νDF6.4638
0.60

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0325
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1095
2.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9650
38.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4638
0.60

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days