Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.91%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
3.84%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
3.61%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 6.88 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0341 | 1.45 |
| αscore | 0.1140 | 2.70*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9615 | 36.10*** |
| νDF | 6.8843 | 0.53 |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0341 | 1.45 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1140 | 2.70*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 36.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8843 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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