Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.71%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.80%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.08%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 6.54 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0315 | 1.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1138 | 2.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9655 | 37.94*** |
| νDF | 6.5434 | 0.63 |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0315 | 1.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1138 | 2.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9655 | 37.94*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5434 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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