V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.19%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
2.24%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.41%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0343 | 1.26 |
| αARCH | 0.1100 | 2.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9690 | 40.18*** |
| νDF | 6.4480 | 0.63 |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0343 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 2.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 40.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4480 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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