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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

3.91%

increased by 0.75%

1 Week

3.84%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

3.61%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifev = 6.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0341
1.45
αscore0.1140
2.70***
βpersistence0.9615
36.10***
νDF6.8843
0.53

0.962

Persistence

18d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0341
1.45
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1140
2.70***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9615
36.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8843
0.53

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days