V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.04%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.10%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
2.28%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0365 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 12.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9754 | 190.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5409 | 2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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