V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
2.15%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
2.21%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.37%
increased by 0.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifev = 6.46 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0325 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.1095 | 2.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9650 | 38.05*** |
| νDF | 6.4638 | 0.60 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0325 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 2.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9650 | 38.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.4638 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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