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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

2.19%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

2.24%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

2.41%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.45 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0343
1.26
αARCH0.1100
2.86***
βGARCH0.9690
40.18***
νDF6.4480
0.63

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0343
1.26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1100
2.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9690
40.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4480
0.63

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days