V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.86%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.90%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
2.01%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3620 | 4.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1246 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8135 | 8.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4165 | 3.04*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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