V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.98%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
2.01%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.09%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3420 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1291 | 2.00** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8058 | 8.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3649 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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