Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
5.52%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
5.24%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
4.43%
decreased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3842 | 4.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1750 | 1.83* |
| βGARCH | 0.7600 | 6.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2262 | 1.84* |
0.935
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3842 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1750 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7600 | 6.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2262 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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