V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.02%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
2.04%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.09%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3694 | 4.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1333 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.7964 | 7.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3577 | 2.94*** |
0.930
Persistence10d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3694 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1333 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7964 | 7.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3577 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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