V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.81%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
1.88%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
2.10%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8544 | 39.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.2207 | 8.81*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0179 | 0.79 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.3734 | 0.56 |
0.965
Persistence19d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8544 | 39.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2207 | 8.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0179 | 0.79 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3734 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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