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V-Lab

Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1.96%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

2.00%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

2.14%

increased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8856
113.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1932
39.35***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0200
0.13
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4062
0.13
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days