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Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

1.81%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

1.88%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

2.10%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8544
39.49***
γleverage0.2207
8.81***
λ₁tau intercept0.0179
0.79
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.3734
0.56

0.965

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8544
39.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2207
8.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0179
0.79
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3734
0.56

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

19 days