V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.96%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.00%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.14%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8856 | 113.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1932 | 39.35*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0200 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4062 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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