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V-Lab

Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.01%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

2.07%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

2.27%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8595
104.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2311
35.01***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0194
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4612
0.00

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

27 days