V-Lab
Calamos S&P 500 Stru ETF JAN MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.01%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
2.07%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.27%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8595 | 104.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2311 | 35.01*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0194 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4612 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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