V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
13.02%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
13.17%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
13.69%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0042 | 0.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7823 | 75.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2386 | 18.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0315 | 1.55 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0681 | 1.89* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8949 | 15.92*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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