V-Lab
Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.15%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
10.86%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
12.43%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0042 | 0.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7821 | 75.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2402 | 18.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0311 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0669 | 1.93* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8965 | 16.48*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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