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V-Lab

Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

12.91%

increased by 2.27%

1 Week

13.07%

increased by 2.43%

1 Month

13.65%

increased by 3.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0043
0.41
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7814
75.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2402
18.82***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0316
1.55
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0681
1.90*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8950
15.96***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days