Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.91%
increased by 2.27%
1 Week
13.07%
increased by 2.43%
1 Month
13.65%
increased by 3.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 24, 2015 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0043 | 0.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7814 | 75.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2402 | 18.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0316 | 1.55 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0681 | 1.90* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8950 | 15.96*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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