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Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.10%

decreased by 1.51%

1 Week

19.58%

decreased by 2.03%

1 Month

18.21%

decreased by 3.40%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Proshares S&P 500 EX-Technology ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 24, 2015 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0111
0.29
βGARCH0.7826
19.23***
γleverage0.2274
4.94***
λ₁tau intercept0.0319
1.01
λ₂forecast adj.0.0619
1.22
λ₃tau persistence0.9005
11.20***

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0111
0.29
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7826
19.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2274
4.94***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0319
1.01
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0619
1.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9005
11.20***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days