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V-Lab

Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

41.08%

decreased by 6.03%

1 Week

16,740,219,138,350.61%

increased by 16,740,219,138,303.50%

1 Month

5,628,840,022,597,906,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 5,628,840,022,597,906,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
200.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6329
320.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-200.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8789
27.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.883

Half-life:

6 days