V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
41.08%
1 Week
16,740,219,138,350.61%
1 Month
5,628,840,022,597,906,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 02:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 200.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6329 | 320.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -200.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8789 | 27.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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