Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
57.01%
decreased by 1.81%
1 Week
57.77%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Month
60.06%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6883 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0709 | 1.25 |
| βGARCH | 0.8685 | 13.16*** |
| γleverage | 0.0424 | 0.27 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6883 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 1.25 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8685 | 13.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0424 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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