V-Lab
Grayscale Dogecoin Trust Doge ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
55.03%
increased by 6.39%
1 Week
54.34%
increased by 5.70%
1 Month
52.15%
increased by 3.51%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 24, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3326 | 1.13 |
| αARCH | 0.2031 | 1.86* |
| βGARCH | 0.7563 | 5.54*** |
0.959
Persistence17d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3326 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2031 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7563 | 5.54*** |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
17 days
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