V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
7.90%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
8.74%
increased by 0.48%
1 Month
10.73%
increased by 2.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0442 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3524 | 15.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5883 | 39.37*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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