V-Lab
Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
11.08%
increased by 0.44%
1 Week
11.59%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
12.77%
increased by 2.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8469 | 4.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.1222 | 1.91* |
| βGARCH | 0.8031 | 9.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0399 | -0.69 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8469 | 4.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1222 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8031 | 9.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0399 | -0.69 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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