Defiance S&P 500 TRG Inc ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.28%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
11.84%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
13.17%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8121 | 4.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1230 | 1.85* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8043 | 9.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0643 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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