V-Lab
Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2.73%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
2.77%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
2.90%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6479 | 2.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1477 | 3.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8071 | 17.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.5744 | -4.74*** |
| γ2 | 5.0761 | 4.04*** |
| γ3 | -1.9695 | -1.72* |
| γ4 | 0.6711 | 0.75 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6479 | 2.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1477 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8071 | 17.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -3.5744 | -4.74*** |
| γ2 | 5.0761 | 4.04*** |
| γ3 | -1.9695 | -1.72* |
| γ4 | 0.6711 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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