V-Lab
Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
5.53%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
5.58%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
5.75%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-lifev = 2.30 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1756 | 0.79 |
| αARCH | 0.1008 | 10.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9794 | 39.89*** |
| νDF | 2.2975 | 20.17*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1756 | 0.79 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1008 | 10.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9794 | 39.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2975 | 20.17*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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