V-Lab
Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
2.22%
1 Week
2.67%
1 Month
4.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 12, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7437 | 75.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 28.13*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0144 | 2.75*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0314 | 1.77* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9493 | 31.58*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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