V-Lab
YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
21.84%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
58.35%
increased by 35.87%
1 Month
2,816.22%
increased by 2,793.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.29 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2894 | 114.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 73.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2944 | 45.87*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0148 | 35.42*** |
Persistence:
0.539
Half-life:
1 days
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