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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

2.20%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

1.78%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

1.06%

decreased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow66
αARCH0.5160
343.32***
βGARCH0.2088
194.19***
γleverage-0.5000
-313.28***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.50
λ₂forecast adj.0.0032
21.90***
λ₃tau persistence0.1204
372.85***

0.475

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5160
343.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2088
194.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-313.28***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.50
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0032
21.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.1204
372.85***

Persistence:

0.475

Half-life:

1 days