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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

21.84%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

58.35%

increased by 35.87%

1 Month

2,816.22%

increased by 2,793.74%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.29
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.2894
114.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
73.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2944
45.87***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0148
35.42***

Persistence:

0.539

Half-life:

1 days