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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

16.10%

decreased by 10.51%

1 Week

13,054,284,538.04%

increased by 13,054,284,511.43%

1 Month

68,863,316,794,938,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 68,863,316,794,938,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0000
0.04
βGARCH0.0604
49.37***
γleverage0.5000
34.58***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.2282
34.34***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.05

0.310

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.04
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0604
49.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
34.58***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2282
34.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.05

Persistence:

0.310

Half-life:

1 days