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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

187.57%

increased by 150.34%

1 Week

486.17%

increased by 448.94%

1 Month

71,227.08%

increased by 71,189.85%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7500
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8079
232.83***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2825
580.11***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3277
189.08***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-