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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

26.30%

decreased by 31.77%

1 Week

8,005,660,847,175.58%

increased by 8,005,660,847,117.51%

1 Month

838,482,987,305,049,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

increased by 838,482,987,305,049,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.3977
41.75***
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
γleverage-0.3977
-41.75***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.6821
45.32***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.199

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3977
41.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3977
-41.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6821
45.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.199

Half-life:

0 days