V-Lab
YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.30%
1 Week
8,005,660,847,175.58%
1 Month
838,482,987,305,049,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.3977 | 41.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.3977 | -41.75*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.6821 | 45.32*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.199
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3977 | 41.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3977 | -41.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6821 | 45.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.199
Half-life:
0 days
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