V-Lab
YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.20%
1 Week
1.78%
1 Month
1.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.5160 | 343.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2088 | 194.19*** |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -313.28*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0032 | 21.90*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1204 | 372.85*** |
0.475
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5160 | 343.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2088 | 194.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -313.28*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.50 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0032 | 21.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1204 | 372.85*** |
Persistence:
0.475
Half-life:
1 days
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