YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.10%
1 Week
13,054,284,538.04%
1 Month
68,863,316,794,938,070,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
| βGARCH | 0.0604 | 49.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.5000 | 34.58*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2282 | 34.34*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
0.310
Persistence1d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0604 | 49.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 34.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2282 | 34.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.310
Half-life:
1 days
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