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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

31.29%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

31.41%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

31.10%

decreased by 1.49%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0074
2.13**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8291
132.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1605
28.74***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0267
4.03***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0706
4.08***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9173
45.16***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days