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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

39.96%

decreased by 2.58%

1 Week

38.48%

decreased by 4.06%

1 Month

34.68%

decreased by 7.86%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0074
0.60
βGARCH0.8331
47.89***
γleverage0.1590
8.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.0260
1.91*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0663
2.41**
λ₃tau persistence0.9218
28.65***

0.920

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0074
0.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8331
47.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1590
8.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0260
1.91*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0663
2.41**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9218
28.65***

Persistence:

0.920

Half-life:

8 days