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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

23.72%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

23.88%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

24.36%

increased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0076
0.61
βGARCH0.8298
46.96***
γleverage0.1601
8.47***
λ₁tau intercept0.0277
1.92*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0700
2.39**
λ₃tau persistence0.9172
26.80***

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0076
0.61
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8298
46.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1601
8.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0277
1.92*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0700
2.39**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9172
26.80***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days