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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.56%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

21.50%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

23.19%

increased by 2.20%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0077
0.62
βGARCH0.8295
46.92***
γleverage0.1603
8.47***
λ₁tau intercept0.0279
1.92*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0702
2.39**
λ₃tau persistence0.9169
26.56***

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0077
0.62
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8295
46.92***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1603
8.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0279
1.92*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0702
2.39**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9169
26.56***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days