V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
20.56%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
21.50%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
23.19%
increased by 2.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0077 | 0.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.8295 | 46.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.1603 | 8.47*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0279 | 1.92* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0702 | 2.39** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9169 | 26.56*** |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0077 | 0.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8295 | 46.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1603 | 8.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0279 | 1.92* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0702 | 2.39** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9169 | 26.56*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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