V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
31.29%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
31.41%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
31.10%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0074 | 2.13** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 132.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1605 | 28.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0267 | 4.03*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0706 | 4.08*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9173 | 45.16*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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