V-Lab
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.61%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
24.44%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
26.15%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0077 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 134.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1611 | 28.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0272 | 4.10*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0696 | 4.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9180 | 45.58*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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