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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

36.31%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

36.12%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

35.09%

decreased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0072
2.08**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8291
132.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1607
28.77***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0267
4.01***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0712
4.06***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9168
44.71***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days