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iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

24.41%

decreased by 1.35%

1 Week

24.31%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Month

24.16%

decreased by 1.60%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0075
0.59
βGARCH0.8296
46.90***
γleverage0.1599
8.46***
λ₁tau intercept0.0285
1.94*
λ₂forecast adj.0.0715
2.39**
λ₃tau persistence0.9152
26.05***

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0075
0.59
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8296
46.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1599
8.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0285
1.94*
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0715
2.39**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9152
26.05***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days