iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
36.31%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
36.12%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
35.09%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0072 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8291 | 132.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1607 | 28.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0267 | 4.01*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0712 | 4.06*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9168 | 44.71*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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