iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
31.90%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
31.67%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Month
30.85%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0419 | 21.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 32.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 284.46*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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