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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

31.90%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Week

31.67%

decreased by 2.01%

1 Month

30.85%

decreased by 2.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 14, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0419
21.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0952
32.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8872
284.46***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days