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iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

27.59%

increased by 1.84%

1 Week

27.63%

increased by 1.88%

1 Month

27.80%

increased by 2.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Taiwan Capped ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0302
4.61***
αARCH0.0839
10.09***
βGARCH0.9077
111.00***

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0302
4.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0839
10.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9077
111.00***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days