iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.19%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
15.71%
increased by 0.22%
1 Month
17.49%
increased by 2.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0442 | 21.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1033 | 35.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8839 | 325.68*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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