V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
20.60%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
20.76%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
21.35%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:53 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0266 | 4.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 8.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9179 | 103.50*** |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0266 | 4.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 8.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9179 | 103.50*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
Other State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on ETFs