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V-Lab

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.50%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

22.62%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

23.06%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0266
19.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0741
32.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9179
406.89***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days