State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.50%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
22.62%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
23.06%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0266 | 19.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 32.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9179 | 406.89*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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