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State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

21.17%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

21.29%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Month

21.74%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0935
6.70***
αARCH0.0741
7.96***
βGARCH0.9175
99.91***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
0.69

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0935
6.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0741
7.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9175
99.91***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0003
0.69

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days