State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.20%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Week
32.13%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Month
31.89%
decreased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0940 | 6.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0746 | 8.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9172 | 100.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.59 |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0940 | 6.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0746 | 8.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 100.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
Other State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs