V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
21.98%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
22.09%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Month
22.47%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0983 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0744 | 7.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9172 | 99.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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