V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
25.45%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
25.48%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
25.63%
decreased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0968 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0743 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9174 | 99.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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