State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
23.27%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
23.35%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
23.64%
decreased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0921 | 6.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0740 | 7.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9177 | 100.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.67 |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0921 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0740 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9177 | 100.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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