V-Lab
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
21.17%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
21.29%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
21.74%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0935 | 6.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0741 | 7.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9175 | 99.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.69 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0935 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0741 | 7.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9175 | 99.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.69 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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