State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.46%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
23.68%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
24.47%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0513 | 2.04** |
| αARCH | 0.2021 | 11.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7841 | 51.60*** |
0.986
Persistence50d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0513 | 2.04** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2021 | 11.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7841 | 51.60*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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