State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
19.24%
decreased by 0.94%
1 Week
19.64%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
21.02%
increased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days.
μ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0512 | 8.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2025 | 44.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7838 | 205.30*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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