State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
22.58%
increased by 4.84%
1 Week
22.73%
increased by 4.99%
1 Month
23.30%
increased by 5.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0444 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.2453 | 11.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7399 | 55.40*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0444 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2453 | 11.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7399 | 55.40*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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