State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
24.01%
1 Week
24.09%
1 Month
24.41%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 305% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0311 | 6.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0932 | 8.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9053 | 99.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.5377 | 4.42*** |
| δpower | 1.1632 | 8.48*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0311 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 8.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9053 | 99.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5377 | 4.42*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1632 | 8.48*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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