V-Lab
iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.70%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
16.04%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
17.24%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 211% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0278 | 23.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 28.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9138 | 388.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3465 | 16.70*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5703 | 37.47*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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