iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
13.72%
1 Week
13.97%
1 Month
14.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 356% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.33 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0200 | 5.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 8.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9207 | 112.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.5153 | 5.22*** |
| δpower | 1.3317 | 11.04*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0200 | 5.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 8.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9207 | 112.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5153 | 5.22*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3317 | 11.04*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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