V-Lab
iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
16.87%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
17.04%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
17.56%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3583 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 8.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8763 | 69.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0214 | -1.49 |
| γ2 | 0.0453 | 2.12** |
| γ3 | -0.0508 | -3.39*** |
| γ4 | 0.0581 | 3.97*** |
| γ5 | -0.0440 | -3.91*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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