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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.11%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

14.27%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

14.88%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 daysv = 8.48 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.6855
1.52
αARCH0.0789
12.19***
βGARCH0.9952
314.03***
νDF8.4762
1.91*

0.995

Persistence

143d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6855
1.52
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0789
12.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9952
314.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4762
1.91*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days