V-Lab
iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.11%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
14.27%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
14.88%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 daysv = 8.48 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6855 | 1.52 |
| αARCH | 0.0789 | 12.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9952 | 314.03*** |
| νDF | 8.4762 | 1.91* |
0.995
Persistence143d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6855 | 1.52 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0789 | 12.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 314.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4762 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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