iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
15.66%
1 Week
15.79%
1 Month
16.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6742 | 1.52 |
| αscore | 0.0787 | 12.17*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9951 | 311.76*** |
| νDF | 8.4629 | 1.91* |
0.995
Persistence143d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6742 | 1.52 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0787 | 12.17*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9951 | 311.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4629 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
143 days
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