V-Lab
iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
15.91%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
16.03%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
16.53%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.52 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7216 | 6.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 48.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 1,274.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5160 | 7.64*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
Other iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs