V-Lab
iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.99%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
16.11%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
16.60%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.50 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7136 | 6.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 48.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 1,269.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4958 | 7.65*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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