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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

15.66%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

15.79%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Month

16.29%

decreased by 0.17%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Switzerland Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 2, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 143 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~143 daysv = 8.46 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.6742
1.52
αscore0.0787
12.17***
βpersistence0.9951
311.76***
νDF8.4629
1.91*

0.995

Persistence

143d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.6742
1.52
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0787
12.17***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9951
311.76***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.4629
1.91*

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

143 days