First Eagle US Equity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
12.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
12.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
12.22%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 15.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 15.94 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.5923 | 0.76 |
| αscore | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βpersistence | 0.8581 | 0.08 |
| νDF | 15.9379 | 0.03 |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.5923 | 0.76 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8581 | 0.08 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 15.9379 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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