V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
13.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
13.48%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0999 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7199 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 2.8243 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.720
Half-life:
2 days
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