PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.18%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
1.18%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
1.18%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6805 | 3.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0120 | 0.23 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8094 | 2.20** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -12.0074 | -2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.821
Half-life:
4 days
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