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PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

1.78%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

1.86%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

2.03%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

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graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.90 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0194
0.85
αARCH0.1021
0.64
βGARCH0.9060
10.69***
νDF5.8980
0.22

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0194
0.85
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1021
0.64
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9060
10.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8980
0.22

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days