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PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

3.73%

increased by 0.70%

1 Week

3.50%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

2.97%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 5.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.0238
0.66
αscore0.0853
0.47
βpersistence0.8862
7.35***
νDF5.1886
0.16

0.886

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.0238
0.66
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0853
0.47
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8862
7.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1886
0.16

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days