PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
1.91%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
1.99%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
2.16%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0216 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9080 | 37.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.9253 | 0.70 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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