V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Week
1.90%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
2.12%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0213 | 3.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 2.17** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8869 | 33.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7704 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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