V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.14%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.18%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.25%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 3.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9062 | 37.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8415 | 0.65 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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