V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
1.86%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.03%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 5.90 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0194 | 0.85 |
| αARCH | 0.1021 | 0.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.9060 | 10.69*** |
| νDF | 5.8980 | 0.22 |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0194 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1021 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9060 | 10.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.8980 | 0.22 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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