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PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

2.18%

increased by 0.18%

1 Week

2.18%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

2.19%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 6.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0191
0.95
αARCH0.0953
0.60
βGARCH0.9031
11.40***
νDF6.3295
0.18

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0191
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0953
0.60
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9031
11.40***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3295
0.18

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days