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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

1.78%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Week

1.90%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

2.12%

increased by 0.29%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0213
3.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0978
2.17**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8869
33.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7704
0.76

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days