PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
2.18%
increased by 0.18%
1 Week
2.18%
increased by 0.18%
1 Month
2.19%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 6.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0191 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0953 | 0.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.9031 | 11.40*** |
| νDF | 6.3295 | 0.18 |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 0.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9031 | 11.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3295 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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