PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.73%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
3.50%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
2.97%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 5.19 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0238 | 0.66 |
| αscore | 0.0853 | 0.47 |
| βpersistence | 0.8862 | 7.35*** |
| νDF | 5.1886 | 0.16 |
0.886
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0238 | 0.66 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0853 | 0.47 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8862 | 7.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1886 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.886
Half-life:
6 days
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