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V-Lab

PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

2.14%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

2.18%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

2.25%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0218
3.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0806
2.08**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9062
37.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.8415
0.65

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days