V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.61%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.64%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
1.67%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5686 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 0.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7237 | 1.29 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -22.4557 | -4.10*** |
| γ2 | 28.7914 | 4.16*** |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
3 days
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