PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
7.85%
increased by 1.46%
1 Week
7.16%
increased by 0.77%
1 Month
5.43%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3209 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.2079 | 0.80 |
| βGARCH | 0.6876 | 1.87* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4379 | 0.56 |
0.896
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3209 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2079 | 0.80 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6876 | 1.87* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4379 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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