V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.77%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
1.76%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5558 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 0.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7702 | 1.83* |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -26.2403 | -3.61*** |
| γ2 | 33.4861 | 3.84*** |
Persistence:
0.789
Half-life:
3 days
Other PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs