PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1.73%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.76%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.80%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5769 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0406 | 0.74 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7951 | 2.10** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -27.1769 | -3.79*** |
| γ2 | 34.6506 | 3.90*** |
Persistence:
0.836
Half-life:
4 days
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