V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
1.72%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
1.80%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
2.06%
increased by 0.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0010 | 0.82 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8787 | 10.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.1768 | 1.73* |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 0.82 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8787 | 10.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1768 | 1.73* |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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