V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.76%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.84%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.08%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0010 | 0.77 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8813 | 9.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1687 | 1.66* |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0010 | 0.77 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 9.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1687 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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