V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
1.78%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
1.88%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
2.16%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0012 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8753 | 33.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1733 | 5.13*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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