V-Lab
PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
1.64%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
1.74%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.07%
increased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifeδ = 1.05 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0065 | 0.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0697 | 0.72 |
| βGARCH | 0.9051 | 9.56*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 0.59 |
| δpower | 1.0515 | 1.95* |
0.963
Persistence18d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0065 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0697 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9051 | 9.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.59 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0515 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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