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PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

1.64%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

1.74%

increased by 0.06%

1 Month

2.07%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of PGIM S&P 500 Max Buffer ETF - December APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 2, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. The volatility power δ = 1.05 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 18-day half-lifeδ = 1.05 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0065
0.47
αARCH0.0697
0.72
βGARCH0.9051
9.56***
γleverage1.0000
0.59
δpower1.0515
1.95*

0.963

Persistence

18d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0065
0.47
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0697
0.72
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9051
9.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.59
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0515
1.95*

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days