Baron Technology ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
27.49%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Week
28.13%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
29.63%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 0.90 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 0.90 · sub-quadratic power
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1629 | 1.43 |
| αARCH | 0.0614 | 1.02 |
| βGARCH | 0.8656 | 6.10*** |
| γleverage | 0.9387 | 1.13 |
| δpower | 0.8988 | 0.67 |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1629 | 1.43 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0614 | 1.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8656 | 6.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.9387 | 1.13 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8988 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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