T-Rex 2X Long TTD DY TGT ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
81.20%
1 Week
87.85%
1 Month
111.59%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1285 | 0.55 |
| αARCH | 0.1190 | 1.81* |
| βGARCH | 0.8690 | 16.22*** |
| γleverage | -0.5030 | -1.67* |
| δpower | 0.5000 | 0.67 |
0.963
Persistence19d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1285 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 1.81* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8690 | 16.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5030 | -1.67* |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
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