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T-Rex 2X Long TTD DY TGT ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026

1 Day

81.20%

decreased by 11.11%

1 Week

87.85%

decreased by 4.46%

1 Month

111.59%

increased by 19.28%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/14/2024

to

10/14/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of T-Rex 2X Long TTD DY TGT ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 17, 2025 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 19-day half-lifeδ = 0.50 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1285
0.55
αARCH0.1190
1.81*
βGARCH0.8690
16.22***
γleverage-0.5030
-1.67*
δpower0.5000
0.67

0.963

Persistence

19d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1285
0.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1190
1.81*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8690
16.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5030
-1.67*
δ

power

Transformation power

0.5000
0.67

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days