T-Rex 2X Long TTD DY TGT ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
113.10%
decreased by 3.32%
1 Week
109.55%
decreased by 6.87%
1 Month
99.94%
decreased by 16.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 17, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1206 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0863 | 9.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8755 | 47.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0326 | 0.74 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 0.78 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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