State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
21.12%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Week
19.95%
decreased by 3.20%
1 Month
16.76%
decreased by 6.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 42% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.88 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0337 | 28.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1965 | 59.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7917 | 227.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1964 | 26.89*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8839 | 22.11*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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