V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
20.31%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
20.33%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
20.37%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0107 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.1296 | 8.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9795 | 214.76*** |
| γleverage | -0.1055 | -8.32*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0107 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1296 | 8.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9795 | 214.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1055 | -8.32*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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