iShares MSCI EAFE ETF EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.76%
increased by 0.61%
1 Week
15.93%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
16.51%
increased by 1.36%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 360% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 360% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0103 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.1664 | 7.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9745 | 153.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.1069 | -6.05*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0103 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1664 | 7.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9745 | 153.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1069 | -6.05*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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