V-Lab
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.63%
increased by 1.00%
1 Week
14.10%
increased by 1.47%
1 Month
15.53%
increased by 2.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 27, 2001 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2568 | 5.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1182 | 8.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8479 | 54.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0462 | 3.10*** |
| γ2 | -0.0879 | -4.16*** |
| γ3 | 0.0759 | 5.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0457 | -4.83*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2568 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 8.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8479 | 54.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0462 | 3.10*** |
| γ2 | -0.0879 | -4.16*** |
| γ3 | 0.0759 | 5.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.0457 | -4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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