V-Lab
Strive 500 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.83%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
12.12%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
12.95%
increased by 0.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 16, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9943 | 6.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0869 | 2.34** |
| βGARCH | 0.8633 | 18.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0072 | 0.33 |
0.950
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9943 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0869 | 2.34** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8633 | 18.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0072 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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