DF Tactical 30 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.55%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
29.42%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
29.21%
decreased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7455 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0418 | 0.75 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7898 | 2.11** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.4583 | -1.38 |
Persistence:
0.832
Half-life:
4 days
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