V-Lab
DF Tactical 30 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
28.71%
increased by 0.37%
1 Week
29.36%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
29.99%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7278 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0707 | 1.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6555 | 1.85* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.1896 | -1.61 |
Persistence:
0.726
Half-life:
2 days
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