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V-Lab

DF Tactical 30 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

31.23%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Week

30.87%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Month

29.75%

decreased by 2.57%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of DF Tactical 30 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 32.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7609
9.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0485
1.56
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9587
35.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

32.6450
0.07

Persistence:

0.959

Half-life:

16 days