DF Tactical 30 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.23%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
30.87%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
29.75%
decreased by 2.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 32.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7609 | 9.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0485 | 1.56 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9587 | 35.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 32.6450 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.959
Half-life:
16 days
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