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V-Lab

DF Tactical 30 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

26.00%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

26.05%

increased by 0.14%

1 Month

26.17%

increased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of DF Tactical 30 ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 25.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7641
7.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0591
1.69*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9398
34.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

25.3368
0.11

Persistence:

0.940

Half-life:

11 days