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V-Lab

DF Tactical 30 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

5.36%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Week

6.05%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Month

6.26%

decreased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of DF Tactical 30 ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 12, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5000
139.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0031
43.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-140.21***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0041
15.60***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9221
1,079.75***

Persistence:

0.253

Half-life:

1 days