V-Lab
DF Tactical 30 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
5.36%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Week
6.05%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Month
6.26%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 12, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5000 | 139.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0031 | 43.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -140.21*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0041 | 15.60*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9221 | 1,079.75*** |
Persistence:
0.253
Half-life:
1 days
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