V-Lab
iShares Russell 3000 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.06%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
12.44%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
13.61%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8404 | 232.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2084 | 44.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0260 | 5.44*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1276 | 6.75*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8477 | 37.11*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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