iShares Russell 3000 ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.95%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
13.25%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
14.13%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8408 | 232.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2074 | 44.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0267 | 5.39*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1312 | 6.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8435 | 35.62*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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