iShares Russell 3000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.62%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
12.03%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
13.18%
increased by 1.09%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9176 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1182 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8391 | 53.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2229 | -3.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4339 | 4.62*** |
| γ3 | -0.3663 | -5.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.2094 | 2.78*** |
| γ5 | -0.0710 | -0.97 |
| γ6 | 0.0807 | 1.17 |
| γ7 | -0.1266 | -1.98** |
| γ8 | 0.0806 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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