V-Lab
iShares Russell 3000 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
11.40%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
11.82%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
13.02%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9194 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 9.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8384 | 53.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2197 | -3.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4291 | 4.64*** |
| γ3 | -0.3651 | -5.42*** |
| γ4 | 0.2112 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.0725 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | 0.0805 | 1.16 |
| γ7 | -0.1271 | -2.00** |
| γ8 | 0.0822 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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