iShares Russell 3000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
11.70%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
11.95%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
12.83%
increased by 0.48%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4706 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1022 | 34.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9872 | 478.30*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9438 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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