V-Lab
iShares Russell 3000 ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
11.40%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
11.66%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
12.58%
increased by 0.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4629 | 6.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1021 | 34.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9871 | 476.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9459 | 6.28*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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