V-Lab
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
11.98%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
12.15%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
12.80%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3545 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 41.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9890 | 557.19*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7905 | 8.90*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
63 days
Other State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs