Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

11.21%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

11.42%

increased by 0.22%

1 Month

12.16%

increased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 6.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3471
1.67*
αARCH0.0923
10.29***
βGARCH0.9889
138.62***
νDF6.7989
2.21**

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3471
1.67*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0923
10.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9889
138.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7989
2.21**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days