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State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

21.46%

increased by 2.94%

1 Week

21.40%

increased by 2.88%

1 Month

21.17%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 6.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3630
1.69*
αscore0.0932
10.20***
βpersistence0.9889
139.12***
νDF6.9862
2.11**

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3630
1.69*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0932
10.20***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9889
139.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9862
2.11**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days