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V-Lab

State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

11.98%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Week

12.15%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

12.80%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 63 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 63 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3545
6.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0923
41.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9890
557.19***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7905
8.90***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

63 days